Monday, April 21st, 2014

How Jeb Bush Loses On Super Tuesday, 2016

Here's one easy way the Republican primaries could go.

Let's say you've got your saggy Scott Brown, your Rand Paul, maybe your Ted Cruz on the outside… and then up front, your Marco Rubio and your Jeb Bush. I just can't take Mike Huckabee seriously, even though he's polling first right now. (In this hypothetical universe, it's, predictably, all men: Everyone decides Nikki Haley is too young, Mary Fallin never gets any steam, and Sarah Palin sticks her head out and everyone's checkbooks retreat in terror and she goes away again.)

How LOL is this?

Jeb is the money leader early out, just because a Bush raises money like a cat hunts a mouse. The machinery is oiled. And all the "negative perceptions" of a Bush only exist in a Libertarian or liberal mind. "Four more years of Bush" is soothing to everyone else, for some unknowable reason.

There's a brief period where Jeb is the front runner, through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Let's say he loses New Hampshire (the kind of state where they get their back up about legacy names). The Republicans are compressing the primary season because it's brutal, expensive and bad for party unity. Totally reasonable, honestly. But it means zooming towards their convention, in some city that starts with a C (Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus) or maybe a D (Denver, Dallas) in late June or early July, instead of stupid old August. They need the time on the ground to work against Clinton. Haha, and everyone is losing their minds, because we're about to have a Clinton versus Bush race, which is hysterical, it's like a referendum on America itself. Madness!

So then there's probably a reduced Super Tuesday on March 6th, a likely not very impressive Tuesday (2012's super Tuesday had ten states). And right before that, let's say March 5th… Obama drops the hammer and says something really nice about Jeb Bush, and blammo, even though Obama's approval rate is like 8% by then, he's still Obama, and it's over, Republicans run screaming from Obama's semi-endorsement of Jeb and the Republicans are left with whoever's standing, with only three months or so for the rest of the primaries before the convention. Maybe it's Marco Rubio! Maybe it's stupid old Mike Huckabee! Maybe it's… Marsha Blackburn???

In any event, it's someone who'll lose to Hillary Clinton, who'll have extra power because Bill Clinton dies late in the summer of 2015, earning her the devotion of like 95% of all women voters. Sorry, don't get upset, he's had a rich life!

17 Comments / Post A Comment

hockeymom (#143)

I'm sorry, you forgot about President Joe Scarborough.

jolie (#16)

Oh my God DO NOT EVEN with this talk of Grampy Bubba dying. DO NOT EVENNNNNNNNN. What kind of monster…?!?!

hockeymom (#143)

@jolie I think Choire is channeling a Scandal storyline. We'll know for sure if a child of a Republican candidate comes down with meningitis in his next post.

jolie (#16)

@hockeymom I just adore this new ("new" HEH) Cruel Choire. "I'm retiring, loyal subjects!" "We're taking away your comment section, loyal subjects!" "I've made arrangements for the offing of Bill Clinton, loyal subjects!"

The best part is that we take it.

laurel (#4,035)

@hockeymom I even heard the camera click audio cues in between the Choire's paragraphs.

GailPink (#9,712)

As long as they lose.

barnhouse (#1,326)

@GailPink YES.

Just toss in a prediction of Bill Clinton's death like it's nothing smh.

brent_cox (#40)

Bobby Jindal's Google alert went off, and he's scared to look.

what if Choire just starts writing political fanfic from now on

jolie (#16)

@Brendan O'Connor@facebook Ooooh. Yes! But also: May we request the return of the Choire Sicha Style Reports? Those were so so so major.

Lockheed Ventura (#5,536)

How does Ross Perot fit into all this?

s. (#775)

At first I read Rand Paul as RuPaul and I'm not even kidding. It's going to be an excruciating next two-and-a-half years.

Rod T (#33)

Have another cigarette and tell me more about Bill Clinton's death. If you've been in the same room with him lately you'll know that he's glowing with health.

Wasn't l'Awl supposed to have a makeover today?

hockeymom (#143)

@Rod T Yes. It's now "Awl Obituaries and Bears."

KarenUhOh (#19)

Interesting scenario (Obama complimenting Bush. . .good luck with that piece of the puzzle), but not sure if Bill dies it exactly helps Hillary.

Prolly doesn't hurt much, either, given that the "Republicans" will be running at least two candidates under some sort of watered-down splintershit. How's a Rand v. Ron Pauls Reality Campaign work for you, Ravenous Media Empire[s]?

I have noted this before, but that damned apostrophe is still upside-fucking-down, and I thought the Awl knew better.

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