Here is a long look at the state gay marriage votes last month, and how all four were won. The successful tactic in the field was personal appeal and one-on-one conversation: the majority of people are conflicted fence-sitters, who are likely struggling between concepts of fairness and the values they've grown up with. And it's safe to say it worked: "In Minnesota, 20 percent of Mitt Romney's supporters voted against the gay-marriage ban; in Maryland, 25 percent of Republicans voted to legalize gay marriage." And what now?
In the weeks since Election Day, the same-sex marriage campaigners have been conducting follow-up research, debriefing, and planning their next steps. A Maine statewide poll the group conducted post-election attempted to parse what worked and what didn't. Voters were asked, regardless of how they voted, which source of information was most important in making up their minds. The top choice, at 24 percent, was "friends, neighbors, and family"—a major validation of the conversation-based strategy. Next was television ads, with 20 percent, while "gay or lesbian friends, family and coworkers" came in third, an intriguing finding that indicates that it was the straight allies of gay marriage that made the biggest difference.
Of course there will be no more states in which gays can marry, when soon it all goes off the rails: soon we will find that gay marriage actually is destroying the societies of New York, Maine, Iowa and the other gay marriage states. Take it from Frank Schubert, who ran the Prop 8 campaign in California, who successfully convinced voters there that gay marriage is Bad For All Of Us.
"Our opponents told the voters, 'No consequences! Nothing to fear!' Of course, that's not true," he said. "A raft of problems will appear that we'll be able to point to. The truth of the matter is that same-sex marriage creates a host of conflicts with people who disagree with it. That's just a fact. You will start to see wedding photographers sued and fined, innkeepers put out of business, churches sued, small businesses sued. Then people will say, 'Whoa, I didn't think this was going to happen.'"
Yes, America will have to rise up against the menace of bearded gay schoolteacher couples who like to weekend and all those inn-going lesbians with lawyers. With the end of small businesses in America, we'll just go state-by-state and repeal these gay marriages and everything will be fine. That's exactly how this will shake out.