1. It only explains (at best) why out of the bottom three, contestant Z goes home before contestants X and Y,
2. It ignores the contestants at the top of the pack who are getting the most votes.
3. It implies that tweens are getting rid of contestants they find threatening or don't like. Of course, that's contrary to the way Idol voting works - people vote for the contestants they like; no one has the power to derail a contestant that they hate. (Until the finale.)
On the first point, I agree that tweens have power, but they are a minority constituency. Look at any ratings breakdown for Idol. Idol is not a kids show; it's the 30 - 50 year olds that are watching (i.e. parents). True, the tweens text more so they have more say than their raw numbers would indicate. But adults text as well. I am "of a certain age" and I text and e-mail many times more that I phone these days. And in last year's finale I sent thousands of votes for my favorite. The point is that adults text as well and there are a heck of a lot more of us in the audience.
As I said, tweens have power - but it is more around the edges. If there are several people in the bottom, they can be the deciding factor in lifting their favorite just out of danger. But of course, their power diminishes with fewer contestants. So (like all minority constituencies) they have their greatest effect early in the season.
Second point: If the tweens are so all powerful, how come their contestants keep sliding down to the bottom three every week? Tim Urban was in the bottom - what, five times? And of course he is now gone. Aaron Kelly has been in the bottom twice (that we know of). And yet, adult favorites Crystal and Lee have never been in the bottom. Crystal has probably been one of, if not the top vote-getter all season. What does that say about the power of the tweens vs. the power of the adults when the tween favorites are always near the bottom, while the adult favorites are always near the top? Your theory concentrates on explaining which one of the weak bottom dwellers goes home on a given week, and ignores the powerful forces that keep the top contestants aloft.
Finally, you are ascribing to the tweens the power to kill off contestants that they don't like. But you know perfectly well that's not the way the Idol voting system works. You vote for the person(s) that you want to stay. It doesn't matter if the tweens hate Siobhan with the fury of a thousand suns, they have no mechanism to kick her off. The only thing that counts is how much a singer is loved; how much they are hated is irrelevant (again, the finale is the exception). You say that Crystal is still alive in the competition because the powerful tweens find her inoffensive - but they will kill her eventually. That does not at all explain where the votes are coming from that are keeping Crystal at the top of the pack. Somebody lurvs Crystal, and whoever it is seems to be consistently overpowering your tweens.
In short, Tween theory doesn't hold water. As a matter of fact, substitute gays for tweens and your theory plays out exactly the same way. So, maybe it's they gays with all that disposable income and time that keep the pretty boys afloat?
Whatever theory you come up with it has to explain the cream at the top, not the skim milk at the bottom of the jar.
On American Idol: The Fascism of Tweens and the Case for Monarchy
There are three problems with this Tween theory:
1. It only explains (at best) why out of the bottom three, contestant Z goes home before contestants X and Y,
2. It ignores the contestants at the top of the pack who are getting the most votes.
3. It implies that tweens are getting rid of contestants they find threatening or don't like. Of course, that's contrary to the way Idol voting works - people vote for the contestants they like; no one has the power to derail a contestant that they hate. (Until the finale.)
On the first point, I agree that tweens have power, but they are a minority constituency. Look at any ratings breakdown for Idol. Idol is not a kids show; it's the 30 - 50 year olds that are watching (i.e. parents). True, the tweens text more so they have more say than their raw numbers would indicate. But adults text as well. I am "of a certain age" and I text and e-mail many times more that I phone these days. And in last year's finale I sent thousands of votes for my favorite. The point is that adults text as well and there are a heck of a lot more of us in the audience.
As I said, tweens have power - but it is more around the edges. If there are several people in the bottom, they can be the deciding factor in lifting their favorite just out of danger. But of course, their power diminishes with fewer contestants. So (like all minority constituencies) they have their greatest effect early in the season.
Second point: If the tweens are so all powerful, how come their contestants keep sliding down to the bottom three every week? Tim Urban was in the bottom - what, five times? And of course he is now gone. Aaron Kelly has been in the bottom twice (that we know of). And yet, adult favorites Crystal and Lee have never been in the bottom. Crystal has probably been one of, if not the top vote-getter all season. What does that say about the power of the tweens vs. the power of the adults when the tween favorites are always near the bottom, while the adult favorites are always near the top? Your theory concentrates on explaining which one of the weak bottom dwellers goes home on a given week, and ignores the powerful forces that keep the top contestants aloft.
Finally, you are ascribing to the tweens the power to kill off contestants that they don't like. But you know perfectly well that's not the way the Idol voting system works. You vote for the person(s) that you want to stay. It doesn't matter if the tweens hate Siobhan with the fury of a thousand suns, they have no mechanism to kick her off. The only thing that counts is how much a singer is loved; how much they are hated is irrelevant (again, the finale is the exception). You say that Crystal is still alive in the competition because the powerful tweens find her inoffensive - but they will kill her eventually. That does not at all explain where the votes are coming from that are keeping Crystal at the top of the pack. Somebody lurvs Crystal, and whoever it is seems to be consistently overpowering your tweens.
In short, Tween theory doesn't hold water. As a matter of fact, substitute gays for tweens and your theory plays out exactly the same way. So, maybe it's they gays with all that disposable income and time that keep the pretty boys afloat?
Whatever theory you come up with it has to explain the cream at the top, not the skim milk at the bottom of the jar.