Friday, November 2nd, 2012
7

Are You Smarter Than A Polling Wizard? Prove It In The Awl 2012 Electoral College Pool!

Map from 270 To Win.

There's been so much betting this election season. Mitt Romney bet that Texas mannequin $10,000 he'd never even heard of health care while Governor of Massachusetts. Donald Trump bet Barack Obama $5 million that the President got mediocre grades from an online terrorist college. And Nate Silver just bet Joe Scarborough $1,000 that math and statistics are more powerful than sorcery. Why should you be left out of this hot electoral action? Join us for The Awl's first quadrennial electoral college pool!

Here's how it works. Go over to 270 To Win and color the map according to how you think this election will pan out. It's easy. Every time you click on a state it changes color. Red for Romney, Blue for Obama. Don't forget to do the Maine and Nebraska splits at the bottom of the page!

Once you've predicted the outcome of the election, click the email icon from the "Share Map" button at the bottom of the page and address it to us at 2012@theawl.com.

As a tiebreaker (because we know how many wizards read this website), include in the body of the email the number of popular votes you think Obama will get. The closest guess breaks a tie. The deadline for submissions is 11:59 p.m. on Monday night.

Now, because of things like "the law" we're not going to make this a money-based betting pool. Instead, The Awl will make two $250 donations in your name: one to the Henry Street Settlement and another to the Red Hook Initiative, both doing great work right now. Choire will also make you a custom Blingee based on your map that celebrates your triumph over the dark forces of pollstermancy.

In case you need help, here are some other people's predictions:

Nate Silver's State By State Probabilities And Reagents Shoppe, which shows a decisive Obama victory.

• The UnSkewed Polls Totally Accurate And Not At All Biased No Way Why Would You Think That Projections, which show Romney carrying every state except Hawaii.

The RealClearPolitics Battle for the White House Map, which shows 11 states going to neither Romney nor Obama.

• Astrologer Susan Miller's predictions for the 2012 presidential race.

Now go forth and prognosticate!

Please note that The Awl disclaims any and all liability for the sudden appearance of demons, golems, curses, possession, occupancy of your body by a spirit or other foreign materials, hocus, pocus, and/or portals opened up to magickal dimensions that result from your participation in this pool, as well as any damage incurred by your use of ceremonial knives (including the practice of blood-letting), potions, alchemy, the poetry of William Blake, necromancy, cleromancy, hydromancy, augury, astral projection, Blood Sugar Sex Magik, hepatoscopy and any and all other forms of witchcraft. You accept all responsibility for your practitioning of the esoteric arts.



Eric Spiegelman is a web producer in Los Angeles and the proprietor of Awl Music.

7 Comments / Post A Comment

NinetyNine (#98)

So are people in Ohio allowed to play, and or are they morally obliged to to only think about the hurricane?

SkinnyNerd (#224,784)

The winner will be a corporate loving stooge, no matter which one of them wins. The only way we win is if the whole map is colored beige.

Multiphasic (#411)

I'm calling it: Jill Stein will carry American Samoa.

(And will have lower back problems from election day onward, ha-CHA.)

melis (#1,854)

VERY happy to see more wizard coverage on the Awl!!!

cory dodt@twitter (#12,071)

Meh, my boring vote will be exactly Nate Silver's. No point putting that one up, I'll just be splitting the pot with a thousand other people.

Joel Rosenbaum (#6,565)

No, I am not.

That's why I'm going with Sam Wang and saying Obama wins 303 EVs, Romney 235. That's basically all the swing and lean states going blue except NC and FL.

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