Remember how we talked about commercial debt and default? AKA the "coming crisis? Well here is the slow beginning:
The default rate for loans on office, retail, hotel and industrial properties surged to 3.8 percent from 1.6 percent a year earlier, the New York-based real estate research firm said yesterday in a report. The default rate for loans on apartment buildings climbed to 4.4 percent from 1.8 percent.
Thanks for reminding me about the reactionary measures I want to take re: my 401K!
I'm too busy at work to leave a fully-researched comment but luckily for me the internets don't filter out useless dreck. Anyway, I've been thinking that the coming crisis may not have an apocolyptic impact on the economy because presumably people have already written down their commercial portfolios to account for the defaults that we can all see coming a mile away.
This doesn't take into account banks holding commercial mortgages that haven't been marked to market (see first sentence of this comment) but I can't imagine that a pool of CMBS doesn't already reflect the defaults lingering on the horizon.
This sure reads smart, but I read your comments just now to a couple of the fellas here (people I consider pretty well-versed in structured finance) as we were jabbing our pitchforks at the naked bankers down in the cellar cages and they said it didn't make any sense. Bobby said the nut of the CMBS problem is the van is low on power steering fluid so it whines real bad on turns when we're trying to get more bankers. Danny said it's all about a shortage of black hoods. They are damned hard to find in this city.
Ugh.