So this new study by the Empire Center for New York State Policy is totally fascinating. Their agenda is anti-tax, so their framing for the exodus of 1.5 million New York residents from 2000 to 2008 is about tax burdens. So their point is mostly that rich people are leaving and poor foreign people are coming in. In real fact, the population of New York state grew 2.7% from 2000 to 2008; Manhattan's migration zeroed out in that time period (someone's always ready to take your apartment!), although New York City overall had 1.1 million people leave. (Is this atypical? No idea!) And also notably, departures from New York state for other states slowed radically in 2007 and 2008. But! Here is the most captivating thing.
The average adjusted gross income of taxpaying households leaving New York between 2006 and 2007 was $57,144, while the average income of households moving into New York was $50,533-a difference of 13 percent. Non-migrating New York households as of 2007 had an average income of $63,277.
Wow. So poorer people-most likely skewed poorer by being younger and/or foreign, but also possibly by virtue of not being New Yorkers, who are usually richer than the rest of the country-are moving in, while really richer people are definitely going. But the people in the middle are staying put?
There's also this issue with Manhattan itself, "where the average out-migrant income of $93,264 was 28 percent higher than the in-migrant average of $72,726." And 35,000 total people left Manhattan in 2006 and 2007.
And, of course, almost a third of New York state leavers went to Florida.
But isn't New York City chronically in a condition where people move here poorer, and depart richer? How atypical could this be of previous decades? (Like, why do you think there are suburbs!)
This is not what the New York Post is straightforwardly billing it as: "New Yorkers are fleeing the state and city in alarming numbers-and costing a fortune in lost tax dollars, a new study shows." Because you know what? I'd sure like to see how this corresponds to the 70s and 80s, know what I'm saying?
Still, I will be up all night thinking about this! Please call me if you have any insight.