NJ Gov Going Down Unless Popular Pal Lends A Hand
For the last ten years, elections in New Jersey have shown a remarkably similar pattern: Republicans—whose last victory in a statewide poll came from Gov. Christie Whitman in 1997—are confident that they're going to pull one out. Polls show them even, or ahead of, their Democratic opponents. The gap then narrows in the final weeks and, come election day, the Democrat wins. This time, though, it may be different: Gov. Jon Corzine is in serious trouble, down anywhere from 10-13 points in the polls, and even his massive fortune might not be enough to ensure victory. Republican challenger Chris Christie is so confident that he even allowed gaffe-prone RNC Chairman to campaign with him. But at least one person thinks the election is far from over.
Writing in the "NJVoices" section of the Star-Ledger website, former union president Carla Katz offers the following thoughts:
Politics, like sex, is about pleasing other people. Some politicians, and some men I know, don't understand that. But Jon Corzine isn't one of them.It is no secret that Governor Corzine has not been feeling the love in the polls and that his 'tough' decisions are pretty darn unpleasant to a lot of people in New Jersey. Gloomy polls and cranky constituents aside, Corzine will win reelection to a second term as Governor this November in the blue state of New Jersey if he can do two things–seduce the coy independent voters who usually trend Democrat and make New Jersey's Democratic faithful smile giddily again by bringing the 'Big O.'
The 'Big O'–that is, President Barack Obama–is coming to New Jersey this week to rally for Corzine's reelection and I will bet there will be lots of giddy, smiling faces, including Jon Corzine's.
It goes on like that ("British politician Hazel Blears recently told aspiring candidates, 'Campaigning is like sex, if you are not enjoying it, you're not doing it right.' I'll bet that this week, Corzine is starting to enjoy it."), but there is an obvious subtext: Katz and Corzine dated for about three years. So really, she's making an assurance: Jon Corzine is so committed to getting you off that he'll bring in a black guy to help finish the job. And isn't that the kind of secure, unselfish leader that New Jerseyans need?
Ha ha. Two things to take away: If you are an incumbent and people think you are not doing a good job, your money will not help. (The opposite is true too – if they think you are doing a good job, you can't lose, which is why Bloomberg's consultants are just taking his money for nothing.) Second: endorsements do not matter. Even if it's Barack Obama coming in to campaign.
The only way to beat an incumbent is to convince people s/he's doing a bad job. But, if you're the incumbent who is doing a bad job, you have two options: either to change peoples' minds about that, or to convince voters that your challenger would be even worse.
I'm from Jersey and I like Jon Corzine. I don't really have anything more relevant than that to say, so, in conclusion, I've been to a Bon Jovi concert. More than one.
And they RULE.
What's up with the anti-Corzine ad running next to this story? "NEW TAXES DON'T BELONG IN NEW JERSEY" — (as if taxes are like foreigners or terrorists; keep 'em out of NJ!!)
Are they ever going to release those Corzine-Katz emails? I've lost track of where that ended up going.
Corzine should just remind voters what happened the last time New Jersey had a Republican governor. Whitman raided the state pension funds and left a $6 billion deficit.
Certainly not the first NJ governor to go down on something.
Thank you, I'm here all week. Tip your waitress.