Is the recession over? Daniel Gross of Slate, citing analysis from the Economic Cycles Research Institute, says it might be! But why?

It's not because they've detected green pea shoots in Central Park. Rather, it's because we've seen the three P's, says Laskhman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, which has been studying business cycles for decades and was one of the few outfits to call the last two recessions with any degree of accuracy.

The economic data that get the most play in the news- unemployment, retail sales-are coincident or lagging indicators and historically have not revealed much about directional changes in the economy. ECRI's proprietary methodology breaks down indicators into a long-leading index, a weekly leading index, and a short-leading index. "We watch for turning points in the leading indexes to anticipate turning points in the business cycle and the overall economy," says Achuthan. It's tough to recognize transitions objectively "because so often our hopes and fears can get in the way." To prevent exuberance and despair from clouding vision, ECRI looks for the three P's: a pronounced rise in the leading indicators; one that persists for at least three months; and one that's pervasive, meaning a majority of indicators are moving in the same direction.

"From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks," Achuthan tells Gross. "The recession is ending somewhere this summer."

Not so fast, Mr. Economic Cycle Research Analyst, if that is your real name. I also have a "three P" rubric which I use to assess the health of the economy. First of all, am I getting paid? I am NOT. Next, when I think about some of the people I know who still have jobs, do I want to punch them? I most certainly DO. Finally, how are things with my penis? Is it peppy and on the prowl, ready to insert itself into whatever life passes along, or does it sulk and shy away from things, drooping in shame over the sorry economic fortunes of the servile organ bank to which it is attached? I am sorry to tell you that the answer is the latter. I will believe this recession is over when that cock pops up one fine morning and says, "Let's get dangerous, baby!" Until then it's all meaningless numbers to me.