Has The Recession Ended? Indicators Differ.
Is the recession over? Daniel Gross of Slate, citing analysis from the Economic Cycles Research Institute, says it might be! But why?
It's not because they've detected green pea shoots in Central Park. Rather, it's because we've seen the three P's, says Laskhman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, which has been studying business cycles for decades and was one of the few outfits to call the last two recessions with any degree of accuracy.
The economic data that get the most play in the news- unemployment, retail sales-are coincident or lagging indicators and historically have not revealed much about directional changes in the economy. ECRI's proprietary methodology breaks down indicators into a long-leading index, a weekly leading index, and a short-leading index. "We watch for turning points in the leading indexes to anticipate turning points in the business cycle and the overall economy," says Achuthan. It's tough to recognize transitions objectively "because so often our hopes and fears can get in the way." To prevent exuberance and despair from clouding vision, ECRI looks for the three P's: a pronounced rise in the leading indicators; one that persists for at least three months; and one that's pervasive, meaning a majority of indicators are moving in the same direction.
"From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks," Achuthan tells Gross. "The recession is ending somewhere this summer."
Not so fast, Mr. Economic Cycle Research Analyst, if that is your real name. I also have a "three P" rubric which I use to assess the health of the economy. First of all, am I getting paid? I am NOT. Next, when I think about some of the people I know who still have jobs, do I want to punch them? I most certainly DO. Finally, how are things with my penis? Is it peppy and on the prowl, ready to insert itself into whatever life passes along, or does it sulk and shy away from things, drooping in shame over the sorry economic fortunes of the servile organ bank to which it is attached? I am sorry to tell you that the answer is the latter. I will believe this recession is over when that cock pops up one fine morning and says, "Let's get dangerous, baby!" Until then it's all meaningless numbers to me.
Don't worry, Choire will be in the office soon enough.
Puerile and parsimonious parlousness essentially means no pooty.
Jesus. I knew my rent was going to go up again.
John Carney will bet your cock $1,000 that the recession really is over, and he'll debate you on that in public. He's a master debater.
Do we want to hear Balk's soulful, borderline-maudlin tales of the life of a perhaps overly sensitive young man in the big city? Yes.
Do we want to hear about Balk's cock? No.
STRONGLY DISAGREE
Here, here. I'm applying for TARP funds to host an open bar at a shitty third avenue bar for all the Awl Ladies. Guest of honor: Balk's cock.
Tuna Surprise,
STRONGLY AGREE
In the New York region? This isn't over by a very long shot.
ha ha ha ha ha ha hah he he ha ha ha. oh… ha… man… he heh… awesome… he hah… heh.. but seriously, what am going to eat today…?
This at least answers my question about whether isbalkspenispeppytoday.com was still actively being updated. No pun intended wrt "updated", I'm almost positive
"It is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not desire." As for clever dick jokes, I ain't got nothing and you're on your own!
"… I will believe this recession is over when that cock pops up one fine morning and says, 'Let's get dangerous, baby!' …"
[Insert your own "stimulus package" joke here.]
If the recession is over, why don't I have a job yet? I've been laid off for SIX WHOLE DAYS.
flagging indickator
Did Balk just admit to not using condoms?
Don't tell Balk's Cock about all the debt maturing in 2010/2011 that will need to be refinanced.
Shhhhhtt! Oh great, he heard you. Now we're going to have to endure half a dozen "My Cock was walking down the street…" posts.
i'd been waiting for the cock to make a comeback.